[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 31.7N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 31.4N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 31.2N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 31.6N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 32.8N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 36.2N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0600Z 39.0N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN


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