[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 31.8N 78.8W AT 20/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 91 NM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 126
NM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MOVING SW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN
76W-80W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 4N31W MOVING WSW NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL OFF W AFRICA NEAR
7N11W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W TO
4N30W THEN RESTARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N33W CONTINUING
ALONG 5N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 4N4W TO 2N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE W GULF
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NW GULF TO
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING ALL BUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS AT 20/0300 UTC FROM 25N83W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N86W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W TO OVER
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 14N84W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 20/0300 UTC FROM 29N75W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO
27N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N72W ACROSS THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS E OF THE ABOVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N71W TO BEYOND 32N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
26N71W TO BEYOND 32N66W. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF ALBERTO WILL REMAIN IN THE W ATLC THROUGH
TUE WHILE THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON THEN
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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