[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N21W TO 6N25W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST AT S
SENEGAL/GAMBIA. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
7N26W ALONG 7N32W 5N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
10N-15N DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING OVER
THE ATLC WATERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF WHILE A EQUALLY BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF GIVING THE GULF NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB
HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N95W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N.
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE E GULF AT 19/0300 UTC OVER THE E TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO 24N86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH TO
OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 70W. A WELL DEFINED 1010 MB
LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 19/0300 UTC NEAR 18N84W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 19N87W INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AND
W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO THE E TIP OF HONDURAS AT
THE NICARAGUA BORDER. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE BASIN USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND DISSIPATE ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/0300
UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N73W TO 30N75W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
TO 29N77W AND BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N69W TO BEYOND
32N61W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N70W TO BEYOND
32N66W. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT E
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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