[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W FROM 6N-16N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N20W TO 3N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 25N85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
RAIN INLAND OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N E OF 83W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF AT 24N85W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AT 16N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA N OF 22N E OF 85W. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W. SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF
S OF 25N. EXPECT OVER T HE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FLORIDA TROUGH
TO MOVE E WHILE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TROUGH MOVES W WITH
CONVECTION. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE NW GULF
NEAR 29N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE THE
NW CARIBBEAN... MOST OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-69W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
46N41W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
ATLANTIC W OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
50W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 68W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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