[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10W/11W FROM 7N TO 13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND
FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N51W TO 5N53W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU
AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N26W TO 4N36W AND 6N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N16W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO EAST OF 10W...AND FROM
3N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE GULF. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 70W AND 30N83W 22N90W...THAT INCLUDES THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES...NOW
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 64W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY
OF THE HONDURAS-CENTRAL CUBA-32N73W RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
81W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N61W JUST AT
THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 56W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
67W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
19N TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N81W IN PANAMA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 81W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 30N83W 22N90W...THAT INCLUDES THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N52W 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
13N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N61W 23N63W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N62W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W...AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN
55W AND 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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