[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 11N14W TO 9N17W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N26W TO 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE EARLIER GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT
HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...THROUGH FLORIDA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BIG
BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N94W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST TROUGH FROM 25N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
EAST OF 88W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W.
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MAKING THE HEADLINES NOW IS SPINNING
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND PARTS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA... EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEYOND 32N70W...IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 65W
AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY
OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 81W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
23N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N62W 19N64W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND THE 19N64W 15N62W LINE. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W...BEYOND
9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
65W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF 65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TO THE NORTH OF 30N. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 22N76W BEYOND 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N60W 23N60W 16N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO A 26N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N58W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
32N35W 22N55W TROUGH. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W
TO 29N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 24N46W TO 14N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 31N25W...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net