[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W TO 10N23W AND 7N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N28W
TO 5N40W AND 4N49W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH
GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
9N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W IN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE...FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 10W AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN
39W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE FEATURE IS THE GEORGIA-INTO-
SOUTH CAROLINA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...TO 25N90W...TO 20N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MAKING
THE HEADLINES NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
AREA OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EVENTUALLY INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N72W...IS SPREADING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 70W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY
OF THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 13N66W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AGAINST THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N77W IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CELLS OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
EL SALVADOR...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
64W AND 85W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
BEYOND 32N72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 31N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N53W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N57W 30N56W 28N58W 27N63W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N66W
20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND
64W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 14N TO 18N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
24N26W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N31W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE LESS THAN 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT...AND TO THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS SOUTH
OF 19N WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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