[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W
6N30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-17W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-35W AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS THE DOMINATING THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE FLORIDA CONTINUING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO OVER TEXAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER E TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE N GULF TO NEAR 30N87W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF 29N. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO 25N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND DRIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO
70W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH PATCHES OF HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. W ATLC ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO
PERSIST FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W EXTENDING S
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W
26N63W TO 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR
32N32W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING TO 25N27W. A JET STREAM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
25N35W TO BEYOND 32N23W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 20N E OF
50W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING E FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N
THROUGH LATE SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS MON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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