[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
GUINEA AT 9N13W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N19W ALONG 4N36W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT IN MAINLY WLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER NRN FLORIDA SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FROM
29N83W TO 27N92W. WIDELY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT SE-S SURFACE FLOW...EXCEPT FOR N OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE ELY FLOW IS PRESENT. EXPECT THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT IN ZONAL WLY FLOW. LIGHT
5-10 KT TRADEWIND FLOW IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IMPACTS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM 18N63W TO VENEZUELA AT 12N70W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS E OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM 13N-18N E OF 65W. MANY OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARDS ISLANDS ARE AFFECTED BY THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER MUCH
OF COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA DUE TO THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N79W
TO 10N76W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS COULD BE AT
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IF STRONG SHOWERS MOVE OVER THEM.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 30N72W TO THE NRN FLORIDA
COAST AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
RIGHT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N-30N...AS WELL AS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 68W SUPPORTING A 1015 MB HIGH S OF THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 24N70W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE N
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG 32N45W 28N52W
28N61W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AT
30N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FARTHER
E WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N32W TO
21N56W. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THIS AREA...WHICH
HELPS SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A 350
NM WIDE SWATH FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING SUPPORT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA TO
PORTUGAL AND SPAIN. IT IS HELPING SUPPORT AN ELONGATED SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH S OF PORTUGAL AT 36N7W TO
15N47W. EXPECT THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT FARTHER W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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