[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 5N22W 6N27W
3N37W AND 2N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE IVORY
COAST. THE NORTHERN MASS OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN MALI. THE SOUTHERN MASS OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF LIBERIA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 57W AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC IS 0.27 INCHES FOR TRINIDAD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W/99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 87W AND
104W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS EXISTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE TROUGH NOW APPEARS TO BE
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
NOW REACHES JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF
A COMPARATIVELY MUCH LARGER AREA OF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 28N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 30N77W 27N85W 22N97W RIDGE. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO EASTERN
HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N70W 13N79W 12N84W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 17N68W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 22N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC WAS 0.20 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W TO 6N80W
AND BEYOND 5N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N75W IN
THE COLOMBIA COASTAL PLAINS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W AND 79W IN PANAMA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND
81W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE
OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N77W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 27N38W AND 21N39W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N55W TO 31N62W.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 31N63W AND
30N64W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO 27N66W
AND 29N72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC IS 0.24 INCHES FOR BERMUDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N12W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N28W...TO 12N43W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT TWO AREAS OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE AREA HAS TO DO
WITH THE 32N47W 30N64W 29N72W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THIRD AREA
IS TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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