[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 2N21W. THE ITCZ THEN
CONTINUES FROM 2N21W TO 1N30W AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT 36W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
24W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CORRECTED
ALOFT...A RATHER WEAK UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EWD TO THE ERN
PART OF THE GULF AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NEWD
THROUGH THE ERN SECTOR OF THE CENTRAL U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH.
BOTH NWS RADAR DISPLAYS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
CONSECUTIVE DAY ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN TYPE
SIGNATURE (APPEARING CYCLONIC TYPE) ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS FROM JUST INLAND THE
LOUISIANA COAST S TO 27N BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE A MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) SPUN OFF BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ERN TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF
26N E OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS SEEN IN
THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N AND E OF
94W. DEBRIS BLOW-OFF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WIDESPREAD TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO IS SPREADING EWD S OF 26N W OF 92W.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WRN FRINGE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE IS MAINLY S-SW AT 10-15 KT. SE-S WINDS OF 15 KT ARE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EVIDENT OUTSIDE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOUD/CONVECTIVE AREAS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...MAINLY SW TO W FLOW UNDER MODERATE CONDITIONS COVERS
MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SEA. THE ASSOCIATED
RATHER TRANQUIL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

A LIGHT SURFACE PRES GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGHOUT INDUCING NE-E
TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WITH THIS WIND FLOW...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WWD ARE SEEN PRIMARILY S OF
18N E OF 81W AND N OF 15N W OF 81W. A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT S
OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W IS RESULTING IN NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS
THERE. THE RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS MATERIALIZING INTO ISOLATED
TSTMS ALONG AND JUST INLAND COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA. THE
NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE
OBSERVED TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...EXCEPT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO WHERE RAINFALL IS MORE WIDESPREAD. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC IS SUPPORTING
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE AREA. A 1021
MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 27N17W...AND IS KEEPING QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SE TO 26N64W IN 24 HRS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE NOTED STREAMING EWD FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE WRN ATLC REACHING TO 70W.

WELL N OF THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CANADA
SEWD TO NEAR 32N50W. IT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST
DIPPED S INTO THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
32N59W TO 29N65W AND NW TO 31N72W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NW TO INLAND THE SRN PART OF N CAROLINA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT E OF 65W. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING EWD EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 24N43W. AN
ASSOCIATED STATIONRY HIGH OF 1022 MB IS AT 29N43W. ONLY SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W AND
59W.  A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 80-95 KT STRETCHES FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 18W AND 64W.
TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N27W SW TO 26N32W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N30W...AND REACHES SW TO
28N34W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
24N44W TO 17N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE THE FRONT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 21N. A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF THE
COLD FRONT AT 25N32W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 9N42W. THIS HIGH WILL
DISSIPATE IN 24 HRS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ TO 9N WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE NOTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE





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