[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 2N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO
2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W...FROM 3N-4N
BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N. FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT SE WINDS PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S TEXAS S OF 30N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO...AND THE W
AND NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SE GULF. EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO
17N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1007
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W
PANAMA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N46W
TO 24N50W TO 21N55W AND DISSIPATING TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N44W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
47W-51W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST
IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N35W AND EXTEND S
TO 18N50W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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