[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N14W
TO 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL AT 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-3S BETWEEN 23W-30W...AND FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 30W-50W.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM
SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ALONG 24N92W
21N95W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
24N BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 2143 UTC COATZACOALCOS MEXICO OBSERVATION REPORTS
WINDS 330 DEGREES AT 25 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. 15-20 KT SE WINDS
ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE FRONT...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE FRONT N OF 24N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BECOME STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT N OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 5N74W.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...N GUATEMALA ...AND BELIZE FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 88W-92W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...
AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NE
NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
RAIN ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 68W S OF 15N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N67W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W
TO 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 25N32W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF
22W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W
OF 40W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-15N W OF 55W. ALSO
EXPECT SIMILAR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS E
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 50W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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