[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
6N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S43W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 5-20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE GULF FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF IN
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SE RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
13N E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
INLAND W PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 82W-83W MOVING E. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SIMILAR HIGH CLOUD
HAD ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W TO 24N55W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W AS NOTED
FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 55W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-15N W OF 55W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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