[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
4N24W 2N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2S44W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER E MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS TO INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVING THE
GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 15/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO NW GUATEMALA
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH HAS PUSHED THE SEA FOG INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS JUST E OF FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS COVERING
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 77W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W-69W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-80W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA...AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF PANAMA AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AND
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM N NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W TO NEAR 25N51W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N39W ALONG 30N39W TO 26N42W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 22N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
44W-48W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E
OF 60W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21W N OF 25N. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
JUST S OF THE AZORES. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
AREA OF DISSIPATING AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC
FROM THE ITCZ TO 28N E OF 50W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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