[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 122353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N10W ALONG
1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 8W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 18W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY W-SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED EWD OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND IS NOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
REMAINS TO THE N. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
LOUISIANA BETWEEN 87W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1032
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N70W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN
FROM THE ATLC. E-SE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN RANGING FROM
15-20 KTS IN THE ERN GULF TO 5-10 KTS IN THE WRN GULF. EXPECT
SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IN MAINLY WLY FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SWLY AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN
TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE IN THIS
AREA HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
E...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A
FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NRN
ISLANDS INCLUDING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS UP THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS A
1032 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N70W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. A FEW LINES OF MOISTURE ARE STREAMING AROUND THE
RIDGE INCLUDING ALONG A LINE FROM 24N60W TO 28N69W...AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 22N70W TO 24N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THESE LINES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH MAIN AXIS DOWN 45W TO THE N OF 25N.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 34N46W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPS S FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 30N47W 22N57W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF
THE SYSTEM IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 41W-47W. THE
ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N31W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 29W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 1N38W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE ERN
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 20W S OF 23N. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N44W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN THIS REGION. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
ALSO INDICATE A PLUME OF DUST EXTENDING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST
TO 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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