[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W THEN SW TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4S28W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL AT 3S39W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120-150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OF LOW SPINS OVER SE NEW MEXICO PUSHING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN AND NW GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
AROUND 29N91W...THEN SW ALONG 27N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF
TAMPICO NEAR 23N98W. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 86W-93W. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...INFLUENCED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING MAINLY SE-S SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY RETREATING BACK TOWARDS
THE NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SW ATLC
TO TO PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING UP TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N E OF 70W. THIS FLOW IS ALSO BANKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF WRN PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC
BASIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N50W. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL INFLUENCE...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 28N62W TO 22N62W. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN
250 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N55W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FARTHER EAST
...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N28W TO 28N31W WHERE
IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 24N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT
OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N34W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 28N
W OF 77W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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