[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 28N TO 2S32W RECROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
37W TO 1N40W TO THE NRN COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN
14W-20W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LIE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUING TOWARD THE NE TO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING
SE-S SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
10-20 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE SW CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT STILL N OF
THE AREA WHICH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE CONUS INCLUDING SEVERAL OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHERE IT WILL QUICKLY STALL AND RETREAT
BACK TOWARDS TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS SHORTLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HAITI TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
NRN VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 37N54W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN BESIDES AN AREA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
37N56W TO HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY
A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 31N34W 26N43W 23N59W. THE FRONT N OF THE AREA IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 37W TO THE N OF 26N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE SHEAR AXIS ALONG 29N33W TO 22N38W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 23W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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