[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 4N ALONG 3N12W 2N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N27W ALONG
3N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
ERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH E OF VIRGINIA NEAR 38N72W. THIS
PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE GULF RANGING
FROM 15-25 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STRONG NE-E FLOW
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W
TO 19N86W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS S OF THE AXIS
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 76W-80W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE AXIS. THE
SHEARLINE IS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS IN THE W
ATLC. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
80W. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
70W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES BESIDES THE AREA NOTED IN THE NW
CORNER. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE SHEAR
AXIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W ATLC AROUND A
1038 MB HIGH E OF VIRGINIA NEAR 38N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 74W CONTINUING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N58W EXTENDING TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 27N68W 25N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG 32N55W TO 23N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A
SHEAR AXIS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 35N44W SUPPORTING A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER E NEAR 30N34W
SUPPORTING A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONNECTED TO THE
UPPER LOW EXTENDS TOWARDS THE SW TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 5N24W.
A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE NE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO W AFRICA IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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