[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061820 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2012

CORRECTED FOR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION IN NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR THE PANAMA BORDER...AND FOR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W AND 4N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N23W TO 1N30W 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF
53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 30N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 28N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A SEPARATE AND NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA...T0 18N85W...TO NORTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N75W-JAMAICA-18N80W-
16N84W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N78W...JUST OFF THE COAST
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N88W IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWESTERN
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IT REACHES TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA AND TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 79W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 11N TO 16N FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W
AND 80W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 19 FEET. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...INCLUDING
NEAR THE BORDER WITH PANAMA...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH...
WHOSE BASE REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N66W. A SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 27N66W TO 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 75W FROM
23N TO 24N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 27N57W TO 24N62W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N32W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
24W AND 42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N32W CENTER TO 16N52W
TOWARD TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.
A 1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N31W 25N36W AND 24N42W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
26W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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