[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COAST OF SRN GUINEA AT
10N14W TO 5N21W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 25W TO
COAST OF BRAZIL AT 5S38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 24W TO 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 1028 MB OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS BROAD ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W INTO GULF.
PRESENT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZE TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONG TUE WITH SEAS TOPPING 10 FT.
BY TUE NIGHT STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF
BASIN...STRONGER ON E HALF OF GULF.  OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS SITS OVER GULF WATERS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WHILE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LAST COLD FRONT STRATIFIES
NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA.  LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND ASSOCIATED LINGERING NE
SWELLS...IS EXPECTED IN GULF OF MEXICO FOR NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT ENTERED NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH
STRONG NE BREEZE W OF BOUNDARY.  SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT SQUEEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND COLD FRONT
CRASHES AGAINST LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1009 MB OVER NW COLOMBIA.
PRESENT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO UP WINDS ABOVE GALE THRESHOLD AND SEAS MAY REACH
19-20 FT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO 1006 MB.  ELSEWHERE IN
CARIBBEAN...STRONG EASTERLY TRADES COVER MOST BASIN WITH PRESENT
SEAS REACHING 12-13 FT.

NEVERTHELESS...BASIN REMAINS UNUSUALLY DRY UNDER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CREST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED
S OF 12N W OF 75W AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM INLAND COLOMBIA
AND E PAC MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND W N ATLC
SUPPORTING COLD FRONT ENTERED NW CORNER OF BASIN EARLIER NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM OF BOUNDARY ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS NE OUT OF BASIN.

A SHARP SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW FROM THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  TROUGH SUPPORTS
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH THAT SKIMS EASTERN ATLC BOUNDARY NE
OF 31N AT 30W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND FROM IBERIA PENINSULA TO THE GREATER
ANTILLES PROVIDING VERY LONG FETCH AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WHICH ENHANCES E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ACROSS ALMOST ENTIRE
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES




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