[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS TROPICAL AFRICA AND EXITS
ITS WEST COAST THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 7N13W CONTINUING SW TO 5N17W.
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES TO 00N35W TO S OF EQUATOR TO NE COAST OF
BRAZIL AT 2S42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W TO 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FEATURE IN BASIN IS HEALTHY COLD FRONT ACROSS NW GULF
MOVING SE AND BRINGING STRONG NW WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SPILL ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRENGTHENS TO STORM FORCE SUN.
COLD FRONT REACHES STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT EXTREME NW CORNER.  SEAS
FROM 10-13 FT EXPECTED IN SE HALF OF GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT...
INCLUDING BAY OF CAMPECHE.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER LAND IN SE CONUS WITH MOST CONVECTION JUST N
OF COAST.  ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WATER
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NW GULF BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS W OF 90W.  STRONG NE
REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN SE QUARTER OF BASIN THROUGH LATE MON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED S OF 25N E OF 90W SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CARIBBEAN FROM LEEWARD ISLANDS
DIAGONALLY TO NICARAGUA WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ACROSS
ENTIRE BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING.  EVEN WEAK THERMAL LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR W COAST OF
COLOMBIA IS UNABLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...BUT IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FORCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG NE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED
OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL OVER OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE ATLC WEAKENING WELL ANCHORED
SURFACE RIDGE.  ONLY SIGNIFICANT SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT UNDER 50 KT
JET CORE FROM 18N TO 24N E OF 45W.

RIDGE RETREATS EAST AS COLD FRONT EMERGES ACROSS FLORIDA SUN
QUICKLY INCREASING WIND AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT AS COLD ADVECTION MEETS THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND ATLC
WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF 31N BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG NE
TO E BREEZE N OF 24N.  ERN ATLC REMAIN UNDER BROAD AND STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1032 MB HIGH SW OF PORTUGAL NEAR
36N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES




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