[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N15W TO 00N29W TO 01N37W CROSSING S OF EQUATOR
NEAR 40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 19W TO 40W.  NO MONSOON
TROUGH NOTED IN ANALYSIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW N ATLC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLC OCEAN S OF 30N W OF 70W BRINGING DRY AIR MASS ALOFT.  SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDES OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIGGING SW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ENHANCING SUBSIDING AIR MASS AND DRYNESS
INTO SW CARIBBEAN.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ARE ABLE TO FORM UNDER
SUCH DRY ENVIRONMENT IN SPITE OF WEAK 1008 MB THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ONLY TOUCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC IS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LESSER ANTILLES
BECOMING DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
RIDING 90 KT JET CORE TO THE NE.  MOST CLOUDINESS REMAINS AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS.

HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTER NW GULF OF MEXICO SAT WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND STRONG NW TO N WINDS ON W SIDE INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE BY EARLY SUN.

CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...FLORIDA AND INTO
GULF OF MEXICO PREVENTS ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN INTRUSION OF WEAK
COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 33N W OF 60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MAY SKIRT 31N AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

EASTERN ATLC OCEAN...
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED AT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
1030 MB NEAR 34N17W MAINTAINING DRY AIR MASS E OF 30W. HIGH PRES
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TUE ALLOWING EASTERN PART OF ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT TO REACH S OF 31N INCREASING CONVECTION IN EASTERN
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net