[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N15W FROM WEST AFRICA TO
6N19W.  THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 0N29W TO 1S47W INTO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SPANS THE GULF ALONG 27N THIS MORNING WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 10
TO 15 KT...EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BEING
ADVECTED FROM NE MEXICO OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 9N76W IS PRODUCING ENHANCED TRADEWINDS
THIS MORNING.  THIS IS BEING CARRIED AS A GALE EVENT CURRENTLY
FOR JUST OFFSHORE COLUMBIA.  THOUGH THE GRADIENT MAY SLACKEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TEMPORARILY
WEAKENING THE WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SEEN BY
THE GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE RADARS.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 55W AND
65W SOUTH OF 17N.  CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL
AS NORTHERNMOST VENEZUELA WHILE THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE RELATED
TO THE RAINY WEATHER IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AZORES-BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR
OUR NORTH BORDER WITH AN EASTERN HIGH OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR
34N22W AND A WESTERN HIGH OF 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N50W.
GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS FROM 28N64W TO 22N59W
NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN IN CONNECTION WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...THOUGH
THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FARTHER NORTHEAST...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 31N42W WITH THE WESTERN
HALF BEING CONSIDERED DISSIPATING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE
IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N43W TO 31N35W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH EITHER FEATURE...
THOUGH THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF
BOTH THE FRONT AND TROUGH.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD DISSIPATE IN
OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



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