[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HEADS TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N55W TO 11N54W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON
TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATED A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...NOT PREVIOUSLY NOTED
DUE TO BEING A SHALLOW/WEAK SIGNATURE WAVE. THIS WAVE WAS FIRST
ADDED ON THE 30/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 11N35W TO 7N36W. THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS DISCUSSED BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N25W 8N34W TO 6N43W...WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO NEAR THE COAST OF SURINAME AROUND 6N55W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-45W...AS WELL AS FROM 6N-12N
E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT A GREAT PORTION OF THE WNW BASIN N OF 231 W OF 91W.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS SE TEXAS...CREATING A
COASTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM BEAUMONT TO CORPUS CHRISTI. THE
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N92W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER THE FAR NE MEXICO TERRITORY NEAR 27N100W. TO
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF E OF 91W IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WNW
TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF FROM A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WRN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HENCE MOST OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY THIS AIRMASS KEEPING WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 75W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM NRN COLOMBIA ALONG CENTRAL PANAMA INTO THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK NW TO ERN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT
WITHIN 130 NM OFF THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE FAR ERN BASIN LATER TONIGHT...
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN N ATLC...
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO OUR DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 32N61W TO 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AXIS. TO
THE SE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 28N57W SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N62W TO 20N68W. SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N34W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N36W
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE SURFACE
RIDGE...ANALYZED FROM 31N33W TO 27N38W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER THESE REGIONS IS FURTHER ENHANCED
BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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