[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 15N56W 11N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTS OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 8N30W 6N39W 10N44W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N44W TO 11N47W AND 9N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND
21W WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N72W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FLORIDA...TO 26N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT IS CONNECTED TO THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DEBBY. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W
TO 28N65W TO 27N71W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N70W 24N80W 23N89W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
A 27N99W TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N103W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 98W AND THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 30N93W 23N93W 19N95W...BEYOND
16N98W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N96W 21N87W DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 18N62W JUST TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...TO JAMAICA...
18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. RESULTANT AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...MOVING
AROUND A MEDIAN 15N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W AT THE
NICARAGUA COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS
ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. 20 KNOT WINDS ALSO
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH A 24 HOUR TROPICAL WAVE
TO BE ALONG 61W/62W...AND IN A FEW OTHER AREAS EITHER
TO THE EAST OF 65W OR TO THE WEST OF 65W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N38W AND 24N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W
29N35W 26N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 22N58W AND BEYOND 18N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N61W 22N63W
20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N55W 25N59W 20N69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N53W...AND FROM
24N67W TO 23N82W IN WESTERN CUBA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 54W/56W
TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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