[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 15N54W 11N55W.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
46W AND 48W AROUND 29/2045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. REMAINING ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 10N23W 8N35W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N43W TO 11N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W WITH THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO
ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PART
OF FLORIDA...TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT IS CONNECTED TO THE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE OF DEBBY. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N66W...
BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO 26N74W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N61W TO 29N66W 26N74W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 26N74W TO 24N82W AND 23N86W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
A 28N100W TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
INTO MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND THE
MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 30N93W 23N93W 19N95W...BEYOND
16N98W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 90W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 18N62W JUST TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...TO JAMAICA...
18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPINNING THROUGH WESTERN HONDURAS
TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHWESTERN EL SALVADOR. RESULTANT AND
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 60W AND
80W...MOVING AROUND A MEDIAN 15N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W 8N78W BEYOND 9N84W. 6N/7N
BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. 20 KNOT WINDS ALSO WILL BE TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
AND WITH A 48 HOUR TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 64W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 28N39W AND 25N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W
29N35W 26N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 22N58W AND BEYOND 18N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N62W 21N65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N53W 24N60W 20N68W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 25N56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 32N62W 26N74W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE 19N52W 15N54W 11N55W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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