[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 6N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 14N85W TO 9N83W. A WAVE WAS LOCATED E OF CENTRAL AMERICA
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS DUE TO LACK
OF EVIDENCE OF ITS PRESENCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A FLARE UP OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IT APPEARS THAT THE
WAVE DOES CURRENTLY EXIST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING ACROSS THE ERN ATLC ALONG
7N30W 8N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N43W ALONG 10N51W 8N62W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE AFRICAN
COAST AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 23W-29W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
29W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W...ACTIVE WEATHER IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF
OF MEXICO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W TO ERN LOUISIANA AT
30N90W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR
30N99W. THIS ARRANGEMENT IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF PRODUCING NUMEROUS  SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 91W-96W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ALSO COVERS THE SE CONUS PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN
GULF WHERE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED. SURFACE WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
ARE AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN...AND A DRY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS ARE STILL PRESENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DOT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS S OF PANAMA AND INTO NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATER S OF
11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE ISLANDS SOMETIME
TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
E SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N65W
TO 28N69W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS AT 25N78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONNECTS TO A GALE FORCE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHICH IS ALSO THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW FARTHER E CENTERED NEAR 27N56W. THIS UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N62W TO 21N65W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE AXIS AS WELL AS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 52W-58W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NRN CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AT 40N37W.
THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
THE N AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 20N39W. THE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS NOT
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN TROPICAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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