[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N50W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
LOCATION OF THE AXIS IS ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP
MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N24W TO 7N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO 10N46W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-FORMS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 8N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N E OF
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE THE GULF OS MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BASIN NEAR 24N96W.
CONTRASTINGLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WOBBLING OVER TEXAS NEAR
31N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TO FEATURES IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE NW BASIN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
BASIN IS FEEDING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE W AND NW
REGIONS NOTED ON TPW IMAGERY. ALL THESE PATTERNS ARE ALIGNED TO
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 23N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ERN GULF NEAR 27N84W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE BASIN FREE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 77W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TURNING AROUND ITS AXIS
ANALYZED FORM NRN COLOMBIA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC S OF PANAMA. AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUPPORTING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT
TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA WITHIN
150 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS N
OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN N
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW
CENTER INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N65W CONTINUING SW TO
NEAR 28N68W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND 70 NM E OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 25N56W CREATING A SMALL AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 25N58W TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH W OF FLORES ISLAND OF THE AZORES. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER
THESE REGIONS IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT
ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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