[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 15N42W TO 8N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N43W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N80W MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH MODEL DATA AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGEST A VERY WEAK TO DISSIPATED WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME AS IT MOVES
BENEATH DRY AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 5N35W TO 82N42W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-FORMS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 9N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR
6N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF
32W...AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-42.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1019
MB HIGH IN S-CENTRAL ALABAMA EXTENDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N92W. THE
SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS GENERATING MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN ON TPW IMAGERY. A
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CONCENTRATED ON THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REGION FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
92W-96W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE CENTERING ITSELF
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE BASIN FREE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAIR WEATHER E OF 75W IS
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9
S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OFF
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE
WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY W OF 78W. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA INTO THE REMNANT 1004 MB LOW OF DEBBY NEAR 32N73W. THIS
FRONT CONTINUES SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
ALONG 26N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 25N80W. THIS REMNANT LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITHIN 50-150 NM ON THE SE...NE...AND NW QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM E AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE FRONT IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH
ONLY A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N36W TO 23N47W. LITTLE TO
NO ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER
THE ERN ATLC IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT
ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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