[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281227
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N43W TO 16N40W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED BETWEEN 37W-47W APPEARING WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. 700 MB LEVEL STREAMLINES ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 TO
36 HOURS AS THE 700 MB TROUGHING HAS BROADENED INTO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N78W TO 18N78W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 75W-80W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BENEATH DRY AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
06N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N28W TO 06N32W TO 10N43W TO 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 05N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THIS FEATURE
IS LOCATED S OF 24N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO
BE FAIRLY DRY ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY...NOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N80W TO 25N86W TO THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 24N E OF 90W...AND
S OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE
CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N85W OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N93W AND IS PROVIDING
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT W OF 75W.
OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM 20N78W TO 16N88W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N65W.
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N72W TO 10N82W AND IS PROVIDING FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W
PRODUCING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA THAT EXTENDS
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND FAR NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 76W-83W DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND NOVA
SCOTIA ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD TO A BASE NEAR 27N78W.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N74W
INTO A 1006 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY...CENTERED NEAR
31N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 27N77W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. WHILE GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NE QUADRANT
FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 68W-74W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 31N69W TO 23N79W...INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 20N56W AND
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N35W TO 29N40W TO
22N48W. IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING FULL INFLUENCE E OF 60W BY EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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