[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO 15N37W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
NOTED BETWEEN 35W-42W APPEARING WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2-3
DAYS. 700 MB LEVEL STREAMLINES ON THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW
SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
700 MB TROUGHING HAS BROADENED INTO MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH
BETWEEN 40W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N77W TO 18N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 74W-78W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BENEATH DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N20W TO 07N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N29W TO 12N37W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM 06N-11N
BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THIS FEATURE
IS LOCATED S OF 23N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO
BE FAIRLY DRY ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING IS ACROSS THE
GULF THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF DEBBY...NOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS SW TO 24N84W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF
85W. THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING WEAKENS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
MOISTURE IS STILL NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
S OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-96W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MAINLY OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N
BETWEEN 89W-93W. AS THE REMAINS OF DEBBY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 25N84W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N94W AND IS PROVIDING
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT W OF 74W.
OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 79W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W. BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N70W
TO 10N80W AND IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-77W PRODUCING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THIS AREA THAT EXTENDS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND FAR
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND NOVA
SCOTIA ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD TO A BASE NEAR 30N79W.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N74W
INTO A 1006 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY...CENTERED NEAR
30N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 29N77W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS
NEAR 25N81W. WHILE GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 32N69W TO 30N72W TO 23N79W...INCLUDING THE NW AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 20N55W
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N36W TO 20N50W. IT
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N43W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FULL
INFLUENCE E OF 60W BY EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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