[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS DOWNGRADED TO POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT 27/2100 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 78.3W AT
27/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 155 NM E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA MOVING E
AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DEBBY HAS
LOST ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W THROUGH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 10N38W TO 7N39W MOVING NNW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS TO THE S OF THE SAHARAN
DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 11N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N75W TO 12N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS LEADING A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE AS ALSO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E
CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W ALONG 10N25W TO 11N31W WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUING TO 11N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N41W CONTINUING ALONG 7N43W 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 7N20W 8N27W TO 9N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N89W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND W OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 27/2100 UTC
EXTENDS FROM S OF THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF DEBBY ARE S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER CUBA E OF
82W INTO THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
27N THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER
WHERE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY ARE N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
80W-84W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-82W
SUPPORTING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 27/2100 UTC
ALONG 32N76W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE
REMNANTS OF DEBBY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST ARE BECOMING ABSORBED
INTO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE
REMNANTS OF DEBBY ALONG 27N85W THEN TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM
SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO
THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA ALONG 26N74W TO BEYOND 32N61W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ABOVE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W
ALONG 29N40W TO 22N49W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED WELL N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC
S OF 20N E OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THE DUST REMAINS
THICKER E OF 30W AND AS FAR N AS 50N SPREADING TO OVER SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL. THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THEY MOVE TO 30N74W THU AFTERNOON AND PASS N OF
THE AREA TO 32N69W FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S OF
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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