[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 81.0W AT
27/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 20 NM SE OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA MOVING
ENE AT 09 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
DOPPLER RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 71W-80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
NE FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT SW NORTH ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N37W TO 14N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A WEAK MONSOONAL 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
09N. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL MONSOON
GYRE THAT IS SET UP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 33W-40W AND
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT ALONG 39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N71W TO 19N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 67W-72W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BENEATH DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N20W TO 11N32W TO A 1013 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 09N37W TO
06N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N41W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-14N BETWEEN 12W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SURFACE TROUGHING TRAILS
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION
ANALYZED FROM 29N82W TO 26N85W. MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY IS EAST OF CENTER...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF WATERS FROM 25N
TO 28N E OF 87W. ALOFT...MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE
GULF NEAR 23N87W AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N85W TO
19N95W...ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 91W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W AND PROVIDES NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING S OF 12N W OF 73W ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W TO
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THEN INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
ALONG 30N. THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING A BIT OF AN E-NE PULL ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W
OF A LINE FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
OVERALL WITH ONLY A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N30W TO 27N40W TO 22N45W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF 14N E OF 65W IS RELATIVELY
QUIET THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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