[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 82.8W AT
27/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 20 NM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95
NM W OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MOVING SE AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. DOPPLER RADAR AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 78W-83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT
SW NORTH ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N37W TO 13N34W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
WEAK MONSOONAL 1014 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE THAT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 33W-39W AND COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB LOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N69W TO 19N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 67W-71W
BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N22W TO 11N27W TO A 1014 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 08N36W TO
04N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N
BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N
BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...SURFACE TROUGHING
TRAILS WESTWARD WITHIN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION
ANALYZED FROM 28N83W TO 27N89W. MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY IS EAST OF CENTER...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 26N
E OF 87W. ALOFT...MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF
NEAR 23N87W AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY...
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 91W-94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W AND PROVIDES NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES N OF 15N W OF 78W. TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE DELMARVA REGION TO OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA
NEAR 34N84W AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N87W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO THE
GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W THEN INLAND TO 31N84W. THIS FRONT IS
PROVIDING A BIT OF AN EASTWARD PULL ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF
28N BETWEEN 73W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF A LINE FROM 32N68W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES OVERALL WITH ONLY A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N30W TO 22N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF 14N
E OF 60W IS RELATIVELY QUIET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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