[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MADE LANDFALL AT 26/2100 UTC NEAR
STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 27/0000 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N
83.1W AT 27/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 22 NM N OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MOVING E-NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NE OF THE
CENTER INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. OUTER RAINBANDS REMAIN OVER THE E
GULF AND CONSISTED OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W ALONG 8N37W TO 3N38W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
REMAINS TO THE S OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. THUS...ONLY CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N66W TO 12N67W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS LEADING A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE AS ALSO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THUS...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N20W TO 9N25W WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUING ALONG 10N29W TO 9N32W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM
8N-14N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA TO GAMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE NE GULF AND
MOST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS CENTERED NEAR 25N95W
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 26/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM S OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY NEAR 27N83W TO 27N90W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S
MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM 89W TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NE ACROSS N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WED THEN
EMERGE OFF N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WED EVENING REACHING NEAR
30N 79.7W WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE
THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA WHERE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N83W TO ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
78W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY WED AND WILL BE NEAR 75W BY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ARE OVER THE FAR
W ATLC W OF 79W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED LOW
IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
A COLD FRONT INTO GEORGIA JUST N OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WITH DRY AIR N OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 30N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO
22N55W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 56W-60W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE E
ATLC IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N29W ALONG 26N39W TO 21N49W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS
NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N47W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 29N28W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF THE
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THE DUST IS THICKER E OF THE E ATLC
DISSIPATING FRONT TO AS FAR N AS 40N. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS N FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND WED. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
OF N FLORIDA COAST WED EVENING AND REACH NEAR 30N 79.7W WED
NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE THU THROUGH
SAT AND RE-STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN RE-BUILD SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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