[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 84.6W AT 26/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 NM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MOVING E AT 03 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DOPPLER RADAR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN
79W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N32W TO 13N31W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE
THAT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 27W-40W AND
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 06N33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N62W TO 18N62W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 59W-63W
BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N38W TO 06N45W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-11N BETWEEN 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EXTREME NE
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS NE SLOWLY.
MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH DEBBY IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CENTER...HOWEVER SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE
SE GULF NEAR 26N85W TO 23N87W AND INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N92W
WHICH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N
E OF 90W. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEBBY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. FARTHER WEST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N95W AND PROVIDES THE NW GULF WITH A FEW UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ALONG 97W TO A 1012 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 20N97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N83W AND PROVIDES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT TO
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS DRY BUT A FEW PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED
N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
ANTICYCLONE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 78W-81W...
AND N OF 19N W OF 84W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 61W-64W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 62W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 58W PROVIDING FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS STRETCH FROM THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OCCURRING N OF 26N W OF
60W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS
CONTROL BETWEEN 44W-60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N55W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 17N43W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHEASTWARD TO
30N35W. WHILE A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N33W IS
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N33W SW TO 28N42W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 32N31W TO 25N44W. BOTH BOUNDARIES HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF EACH FEATURE.
FINALLY...EXAMINING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT BY
CIMSS...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ATLC FROM FROM 13N TO BEYOND 32N E OF 30W AND FROM 10N-22N
BETWEEN 30W-63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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