[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR
29.0N 85.2W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/80 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
995 MB. DEBBY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 30.5N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN
85W AND 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE
WEST OF 75W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
IS EVEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS WERE
MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THEY APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND T.S. DEBBY ALONG 25N87W 22N91W
21N96W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N82W
23N89W 20N96W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
TWO CELLS IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
85W AND 87W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W...BASED
ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N58W 8N55W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 8N20W 9N28W 7N34W 5N41W. THE ITCZ IS NONDESCRIPT AT THIS
TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N
TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EASILY IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W ABOUT SIX OR
SEVEN HOURS AGO...BUT THEY HAVE WEAKENED WITH TIME. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W...
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS AT THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES T.S. DEBBY. PLEASE
READ THE WARNING INFORMATION FOR T.S. DEBBY IN THE MIATCPAT4
PUBLIC ADVISORY. OTHER WIND FORECAST INFORMATION...EXCEPT AS
NOTED IN THE WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF T.S. DEBBY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND TO THE EAST OF 86W WIND SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 33 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. IT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT WAS IN
THAT AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W/76W AND COSTA RICA NEAR 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
11N IN THE WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 14N...IN THE LOW CLOUD WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 82W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N58W AND
20N62W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
64W AND 73W TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W AND 29N59W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT
150 TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32 28N36W 25N45W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 26N50W 28N42W 31N35W.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 9N49W 11N50W 14N51W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N27W 17N34W TO 10N42W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE AND/OR
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 65W FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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