[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.6N 85.8W AT 25/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 90 NM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA REMAINING STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. DOPPLER RADAR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-83W...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N29W TO 16N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 26W-34W...AS WELL AS COINCIDING
WITH A 700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 07N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 25W-35W AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N53W TO 19N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20
KT. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A STRETCHED POLEWARD MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 46W-54W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING 700 MB TROUGH S OF 19N
ALONG 52W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
09N28W TO 05N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N38W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. MUCH OF
THE STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH DEBBY IS TO THE EAST OF
CENTER...HOWEVER SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR
26N86W TO 22N90W AND INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N96W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 82W-87W. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH DEBBY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W.
FARTHER WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W AND PROVIDES THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO DEBBY AND HER ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR THIS MORNING AND UNDER LIGHT WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ALONG 97W TO 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N83W AND PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS DRY BUT A FEW PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF
15N BETWEEN 65W-82W. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 83W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OCCURRING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 63W PROVIDING FOR PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N59W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD TO 21N65W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
25N59W TO 32N58W. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES NEAR
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 35W REMAINING N OF 30N AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N36W TO 26N51W TO 28N60W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 38N19W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO
32N27W TO 24N38W TO 24N58W. PLENTY OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THIS
AREA FROM 14N TO BEYOND 32N E OF 30W AND FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN
30W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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