[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.6N 85.8W AT 25/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 NM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA REMAINING STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. DOPPLER RADAR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-88W...AND
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 77W-83W...INCLUDING MUCH OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N28W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 24W-33W...AS WELL AS COINCIDING
WITH A 700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 07N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 24W-33W AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N50W TO 17N49W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS
COINCIDES WITH A STRETCHED POLEWARD MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 43W-51W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING 700 MB TROUGH S OF 19N
ALONG 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
10N26W TO 06N30W TO 06N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N40W TO 05N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND FROM 03N-08N
BETWEEN 24W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH DEBBY IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTER...HOWEVER SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR
25N87W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 84W-91W. THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY IS LIKELY
ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. FARTHER WEST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF W OF 90W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N94W AND PROVIDES THE CENTRAL GULF WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELY SOME OF THE MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO DEBBY AND HER ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND UNDER LIGHT
WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS
ALONG 97W TO 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N81W AND PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 66W. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS DRY BUT A FEW PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF
15N BETWEEN 68W-82W. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 19N W OF 85W...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OCCURRING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-63W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 65W PROVIDING FOR PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N60W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD TO 20N63W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
24N61W TO 32N58W. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES NEAR
A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 35W REMAINING N OF 30N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N36W TO 30N40W BECOMING STATIONARY SW TO 27N50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N19W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
SW TO 32N26W TO 24N40W TO 23N51W. PLENTY OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THIS AREA FROM 14N TO BEYOND 32N E OF 30W AND FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 30W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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