[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0000 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N
86.0W...OR ABOUT 115 MI SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 990
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR E AND NE GULF WATERS E OF 90W...AS WELL AS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 125 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS UP TO 22 FT.
INTERESTS IN THIS AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE PANHANDLE OVER THE 24-48
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EXTENDING
FROM 14N22W TO 7N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. HENCE...THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS PART OF THE MONSOONAL GYRE DISCUSSED
ABOVE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS
EXTENDING FROM 17N47W TO 9N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
PRECEDES A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND SAHARAN DUST
COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N17W ALONG 13N24W 7N30W TO 6N39W...WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WNW TO NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 16W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE THE CENTER OF ATTENTION
THIS EVENING. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
BROAD AND COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF DISCUSSION AREA. THE
BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION IS DRAWING MOISTURE AND HEAVY PRECIP TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND WRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THE GREATEST AREA OF
IMPACT IS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...DEPICTING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E AND NE
GULF WATERS...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SITTING OVER THE NW BASIN NEAR 26N94W. HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS MINIMAL DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N
OF 18N W OF 82W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE
...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W.
SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE FAR ERN BASIN FURTHER
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DUST ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO CUBA. IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS.
THIS REGION OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT...BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA AND AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 31N61W. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING A
FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 60W-77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC
SUPPORTS A OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N49W. ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N37W TO 25N49W GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 50
NM E OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC BASINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A
BROAD/ELONGATED 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 38N18W. THE FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THESE REGIONS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN
DUST DEPICTED ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING
PRODUCT. THIS AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA ALL THE WAY TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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