[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF STATIONARY TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/1200 UTC
IS NEAR 27.5N 87.0W...OR ABOUT 170 MILES/270 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM 24N TO LAND BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND TAMPA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE BAHAMAS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 24N76W NEAR THE EXUMA
SOUND. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE 16 FEET ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
12 FEET OR HIGHER ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.
THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON
CIMSS SATELLITE WIND DATA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W
TO 13N20W 7N26W 6N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N32W TO 5N36W
AND 5N41W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N23W 7N27W 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EASILY IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS
FROM 28N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 15N65W 13N69W...TOWARD THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 29N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 29N63W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ
THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF
80W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N45W TO 28N55W AND
30N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N36W 28N44W 24N53W 23N59W. THE COLD FRONT IS
MARKED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 24N61W 32N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N25W TO 26N35W 23N50W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N58W...TO 30N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 30N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N31W 22N49W
BEYOND 17N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WINDS
AND SEAS NEAR THE CURRENT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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