[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF STATIONARY TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/0300 UTC
IS NEAR 26.3N 87.5W...OR ABOUT 215 MILES/350 KM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N84W...IN SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 27N81W...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
78W AND 79W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE 15 FEET HIGH ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE 12 FEET OR HIGHER ARE WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 17N16W
TO 10N20W 5N29W 5N34W AND 5N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N34W TO 7N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 6N23W 6N31W AND 6N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EASILY IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS FROM
28N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO 28N87W...AND IT
CONTINUES FROM 24N88W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 19N93W.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 15N65W 13N69W...TOWARD THE PENINSULA DE LA
GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 29N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM
THE 29N65W CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO
THE WEST OF 71W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND
79W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 31N44W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO 29N53W AND 30N59W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD
32N42W 31N44W COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N38W 28N43W.
THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N30W 23N40W 23N59W
TO 27N79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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