[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE BROAD ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GULF BECAME
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 23/2100 UTC...WITH THE LATEST POSITION
CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 87.5W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 220 MI SSE OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY NEAR
STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF WATERS E OF 87W S OF 30N.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE WITHIN 210 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT AND
150 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. INTERESTS IN
THIS AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WATERS
EXTENDING FROM 16N40W TO 10N41W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W ALONG 10N22W TO 5N34W...WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES WNW TO NEAR 7N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 35W...AND WITHIN 70-120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATTENTION THIS EVENING HAS TURNED TO NEW DEVELOPED TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100 UTC. FOR MORE
DETAILS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
TO THIS SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR WEST ATLC. TO DEPICT THE COVERAGE OF THE
CIRCULATION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO JUST N OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY NEAR
28N87W...AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM JUST S OF THE CENTER
NEAR 24N87W CONTINUING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF WATERS E OF
87W S OF 30N...AS WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING OVER
THE NW BASIN NEAR 28N93W. HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO
THIS FEATURE IS MINIMAL DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N
OF 18N W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND
FIELD FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OTHERWISE
...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE FAIR WEATHER IS
ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THIS REGION. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
FAR WRN ATLC W OF 73W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA....WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 29N65W. HOWEVER
...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND LIMITED
DUE TO INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N45W TO 29N56W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N42W
TO 26N51W GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
BASINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WSW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
37N20W. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN ATLC ARE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST DEPICTED ON THE METEOSAT-9
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THIS AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ALL THE WAY TO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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