[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI...TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N88W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHWARD SLOWLY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS OR SO.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
EXTENDING TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM WESTERN HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...AND FROM CUBA TO THE
BAHAMAS. RESIDENTS AND/OR PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED
STATES GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N37W 8N36W 3N34W.
THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE LATEST
CIMSS WIND ANALYSIS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDERS OF
SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA NEAR 17N17W TO 10N21W AND 5N28W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N28W TO 4N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE SPECIAL
FEATURE THAT IS THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH COVER PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 23N.
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOAT...FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER/SPECIAL
FEATURE. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE NEAR
THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 14N62W 14N66W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 28N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 28N67W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 71W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY
IN SECTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THIS SAME AREA. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND
50W...AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 23N40W TO 21N50W BEYOND 16N57W INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 22N41W...THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N58W...TO 33N71W. PLEASE READ
THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
RELATED TO THE 31N/32N COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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