[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N87W
TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N88W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...EXTENDING
TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...CUBA TO THE WEST OF
80W...THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST 90W...FLORIDA...AND THE
BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 23N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE
EVENTUALLY MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND/OR PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE
UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N32W TO 4N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SE OF
THE WAVE AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N17W ALONG 8N20W TO 5N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 4N34W. THEN IT RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
26W-33W...AND FROM 3N-10N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 92W. THE SPECIAL
FEATURE THAT IS THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH COVER PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK...NHCTWOAT...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE 1004
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER/SPECIAL FEATURE. PLEASE READ THE MARINE
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
SPEEDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE NEAR THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO TH
WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHWERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 14N62W 14N66W...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A 28N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM THE 28N68W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND IT ULTIMATELY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 71W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY IN
SECTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THIS SAME AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND
53W...AND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N48W 28N50W 25N54W
25N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N31W...TO
23N40W...THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N45W...THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N61W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 32N COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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