[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 30N85W ALONG A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W CONTINUING SSW
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD AND COVERS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR WEST ATLC. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED THAT THIS BROAD WIND FIELD RANGES
FROM 20 KT WELL OUTSIDE THE ANALYZED FEATURES TO NEAR GALE FORCE
CRITERIA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DOPPLER RADAR AND INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE E AND SE OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES...GENERATING NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR WEST
ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 77W-90W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N32W TO 4N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SE OF
THE WAVE AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N17W ALONG 8N20W TO 5N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 4N34W. THEN IT RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
26W-33W...AND FROM 3N-10N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
IMPACT THE GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STRONGER CYCLONIC WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE ZONES IN
ADDITION TO PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
78W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THIS REGION. IMPACTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR
28N69W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS MAXIMIZED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-70W...AS WELL AS
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 68W-73W. THIS REGIONS ARE RELATED TO STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALIGNED. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BASINS IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N46W AND A
1025 MB HIGH AROUND 34N23W. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST DEPICTED ON THE METEOSAT-9
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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