[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 44.6N 46.9W AT
22/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 290 NM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING
WSW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH
AN AXIS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 31N93W TO 27N100W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AXIS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N98W TO OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. WHILE A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W INTO A 1005 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 22N88W THEN SW INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR
18N94W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 83W-88W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 81W-93W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT TOWARDS THE GULF COASTAL STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N32W TO 14N30W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH
A VERY WEAK 700-850 MB TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 32W. NO CONVECTION
IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE WAVE
AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
07N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N22W TO 05N39W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 12W-15W...AND FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE IS GOING TO
IMPACT THE GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STRONGER CYCLONIC WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE ZONES IN
ADDITION TO PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
W OF A LINE FROM 16N85W TO 22N81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE BASIN S OF 18N E OF 82W. THE ONLY
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF
18N BETWEEN 67W-82W IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
27N70W WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 64W-72W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
22N TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST NEAR
31N73W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS N OF 29N W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF A MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
36N18W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 22N41W THEN
WESTWARD TO 22N 62W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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