[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 220836
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
500 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012

CHRIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
STORM IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY CONSISTS OF A TIGHT
SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 45 KT...FOLLOWING THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND WILL
LIKELY COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. CHRIS...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS LARGER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
CHRIS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON AN OSCAT PASS
AROUND 0200 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 44.8N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 44.3N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0600Z 43.2N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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