[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 212035
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
500 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012

COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 19-20C AND A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL
ON CHRIS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS OPENED UP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME
DOWN AND THE CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW AN INTENSITY BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHRIS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...015/12 KT.
CHRIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
A SUBSEQUENT TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH COULD FOLLOW...WITH CHRIS BEING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 42.4N  42.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 43.9N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  22/1800Z 43.8N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 42.8N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

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